Two powerful players prepare for a possible run-fest in Rawalpindi

“We could be gunning for something around 400 if we are sent to bat first,” Alex Carey stated at the press conference in Rawalpindi a day before the champions trophy face off against South Africa, Australia’s next match.

In Karachi on Friday, South Africa’s 315/6 was enough for claiming victory over Afghanistan by a staggering margin of 107 runs. In Lahore on Saturday though, England set a new tournament record by scoring 351/5, only to have it snatched away from them in an Australia chase that saw them win five wickets to spare with 15 balls remaining.

Do not rule it out, but given the form of Australia and South Africa in the competition so far, it would be a shock to see anything less than a target of 300 in the clash to be held in Rawalpindi on Tuesday. Four out of the twelve innings so far have managed to surpass that defensive mark. These two sides bear the brunt of some the toughest batting lines in the Champions Trophy. Unfortunately, this has also come at the cost of a plethora of injuries and issues developing post tournament start.

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Even so, it is not entirely irrational giving context to the circumstances and the person who set the record. It was done at the Wanderers in March 2006 by Australia, who scored 434/4 and South Africa scored 438/9 with a ball to spare. This is the first instance of going beyond 400 and now it has happened over 27 times.

From the twenty-two available, South Africa has done it a whopping Eight times, with Australia managing to do it once along with India and England getting it done seven and five times respectively. New Zealand, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe, and Ireland achieved it twice, once, and once respectively.

While the South African batsmen have done it twice, the Aussies have managed to do it thrice. Netherlands and Sri Lanka have also done it thrice but India and Ireland have done it twice, along with Pakistan managing to do it once. Out of all of these, New Zealand, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, United States and Bermuda have all done it just once.

Most of the teams who have pursued the goal and went over the limit by 400 have won 24 out of the 27 games in the ODI tournaments. Besides that March day at the Wanderers in 2006, some when Sri Lanka’s score of 411 runs at 8 wickets wasn’t close to beating to India in Rajkot back in December 2009, and the time during the World Cup in 2023. While revised DLS New Zealand’s decree of 401 for 6 to a guess of 342 over 41 overs. During this, Pakistani players scored 200 runs waiting on 1 after 25 overs.

Carey knew that his joke about needing 400 was impossible, but it was clear he understood the seriousness behind his comment. Like everyone in the know, he is aware that those teams have done it before and can do it again.

From what we can see, it is abundantly clear that both teams are ready for the semifinals. When Australia touched down, it became increasingly apparent that they were heading towards a barren fate having already lost 4 straight ODIs. Likewise, South Africa were also on a similar ship, losing 6 games straight, albeit playing for and against weakened teams due to injures and issues with club T20 matches.

The group match that pitted the two stronger teams against each other led to the result that England had severely dominated their previous eight games with India, proving that the Afghans who had also been on form winning eight out of the last ten ODIs, were indeed not as competent while thumping South Africa’s woeful team in Sharjah in September. This would have dispatched the notion of painstakingly reaching the semifinals without a single issue.

The outcome from Friday’s matches rewrote the predisposed narrative of the Afghanistan team and what’s more the focus shifted to the winner of the Tuesday contest. Australia and South Africa will meet again in an ICC event alongside each other for the very first time in ages, ready to settle the score. This “friendly” game or practice match promises to be thrilling.

Victory will maintain the final four almost. If the team loses, this would pose a dire issue for their subsequent group match. With that said, the final group game would become impossible to lose if they chose to stay in the competition, with rain also being a large factor. But if played, the first team on the batting side might have to aim for 400.

When: February 25, 14:00 Local, 11:00 SAT, 14:30 IST

Where: Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium

What to expect: Another docile pitch. And rain: a 62% chance of showers forecast for the afternoon strengthens to 71% in the evening.